(MORE: Boris Johnson: The London Mayor is the Biggest Winner of the Olympics)

On September 7, 2013, in Buenos Aires, Argentina,  Tokyo, Istanbul and Madrid will learn which of the three cities’ bids was enticing enough to convince the IOC to let it host the greatest show on earth. (Both Baku and Doha had to suffer the fate of being non-selected applicant cities, whereas the Italian government withdrew Rome’s bid due to the country’s perilous economic situation). The smart money is on Tokyo, but the Olympics have never been easy to predict. TIME looks at the pros, cons and odds of the three locations.

TOKYO (6/5 odds)

The British bookmakers have installed the Japanese capital as the favorite to host the Games and the reasons do appear compelling, even though this is the second Olympics in a row in which they’re bidding (the Olympics were also held there in 1964). “I think Tokyo is a pretty safe bet,” says Stefan Szymanski, the Stephen J. Galetti Professor of Sport Management, in the department of Kinesiology at the University of Michigan (the full audio of the interview is below). “You can trust the Japanese to get everything on time and to budget. You can be sure they will run an efficient, safe Games and there will be no risks involved. You can be sure all the technology’s going to work. So I think it’s big pluses on those fronts.”

Japan is currently basking in a post-Olympic glow, much like Great Britain. The Japanese had a medal haul in London unlike any other in their history, winning 38 medals, which put them in sixth place in the standings, if you go on the total amount of medals. Half a million people are estimated to have packed downtown Tokyo to welcome back the athletes, but reservations remain. “I remember the Tokyo Olympics in 1964 was one of the most beautiful Olympics ever,” writes veteran Japanese sports journalist Kozo Abe in an email to TIME. “At that time we Japanese really needed to stage the Olympics to recover the national pride after World War II. Compared from that time, we don’t have an urgent need to stage the Tokyo Olympics now.” And Professor Szymanski sees two issues: The first is “a relatively low level of support, only 66% in favor, but that’s well behind their rivals. The IOC only wants to go places where they will be welcomed with adulation. And then the other problem is rather more imponderable: because of the earthquake last year, questions are being raised about the energy future of Tokyo.”

But the feeling persists that it’s still Tokyo’s bid to lose, if only because it might be considered Asia’s turn to host the 2020 Games. “A very coherent, sensible bid,” argues Szymanski. “And in terms of the politics, Asia would be a good place to hold the Games this time. I think having had the Games in London this time, I think Istanbul and Madrid will be seen as European bids. I think that puts Tokyo at an advantage and the others at a disadvantage.”

And Abe believes that the awarding of the Games to Tokyo is important for its people: “Japan is still poor in its economy and politicians are unreliable, and we have so many difficult issues with Korea and China. We need something that makes our nation together again for some good reason. That must be Tokyo Olympics 2020.”

(MORE: Gracious Losers: Japan’s Women Celebrate Silver in a Soccer Rematch with the U.S.)

ISTANBUL (5/2)

Could Istanbul pull off a shock and be the third Olympics in a row to be awarded to a city not considered the front-runner? Both Paris and Chicago were perceived to be more likely choices than eventual winners London and Rio and all involved with the Turkish bid will be hoping it’s fifth time lucky for a city yet to host the event.

“Should Istanbul be the winner, for the first time the Olympics will be held by a country in the Turkic and Islamic world,” said Youth and Sports Minister Suat Kilic. According to Szymanski, Istanbul offers the highest amount of support within any of the three nations – 87% – and the fact that Turkey is a “newly growing economy … might generate some sympathy from other IOC members, who might say ‘it’s their turn,’ rather in the way South Africa got the 2010 World Cup.”

But Istanbul’s main stumbling block could  be  in not receiving full support from the IOC’s executive board. According to the Associated Press, an official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the board voted unanimously in favor of Tokyo and Madrid at 12-0 whereas Istanbul got an 11-1. Szymanski thinks they also have another problem, which is sports-related: Istanbul is in the running to host the 2020 European soccer championships. “That really is quite foolish seeing as it’s enough of a challenge to host the Summer Games, it’s really absurd to think they would want to do that and, in the same year, host the second biggest football tournament in the world,” he says. “It almost suggests they believe they’re not going to get the Summer Games and this is their reserve strategy. I think that’s a big mistake and I think that will count heavily against them.”

(VIDEO: The Sights and Sounds of the Olympics)

MADRID (3/1)

The Spanish capital is bidding for a third consecutive time and, according to Szymanski, the Madrid bid is “potentially the lowest cost: they claim to have 78% of the venues built so not surprisingly they come out with a relatively small budget of just $2.4 billion … that really would be value for money. If you could do that, you would end up saying the Olympics was worthwhile in cost benefit terms rather than the economic drain it historically has been.”

But as Szymanski, and everyone else on the planet is aware, “you’d have to be blind not to know that Spain has serious economic problems.” Moreover, “unlike perhaps the Japanese energy problems, the economic crisis in Spain is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future so the debt overhang is going to be huge.”

Yet the locals remain optimistic. Gildo Seisdedos, a professor at the IE Business School in Madrid, says, “I think it’s time for Madrid. The 2016 bid was not the right time to do it in terms of Olympic politics, but now I think Madrid is quite a good option in terms of solidity as most of the venues are already done and it’s a good European option.”

But economic crisis notwithstanding, it would be hard to argue against the logic that it makes more sense to look outside of  Europe due to London hosting the most recent Games. It’s clear that Tokyo remains in the driver’s seat, but the allure of Istanbul’s bid may end up resulting in yet another IOC surprise.

PHOTOS: The London Olympics Come to a Show-Stopping Close

So it goes in this most remarkable Olympic summer in Britain. The nation’s sports-mad fans celebrated Team GB’s impressive medal haul (65 medals, of which 29 were gold, making it the best return in over a century; Great Britain finished third in the gold-medal standings), and they’re eagerly anticipating similar success in the Paralympics, which could see GB end up in second, only behind the Chinese.

(PHOTOS: Olympic Highlights in Photographs)

Before the London Games, roughly 1.2 million tickets had been purchased for the Paralympics, but a further 600,000 were bought during the Olympics; now marquee sports such as track and field in the Olympic Stadium, cycling at the velodrome and wheelchair tennis at Eton Manor on the Olympic Park have pretty much sold out. “Our aim now is to sell every single ticket,” International Paralympic Committee chairman Philip Craven recently said. “It would be fitting that when the Paralympic movement returns to its spiritual birthplace … it does so in front of packed, sold-out venues [the original idea for the Paralympics stems from the 1948 Stoke Mandeville Games held in Britain for World War II veterans with spinal-cord injuries].”

To put the stellar ticket sales into perspective, consider that there have been 15 Paralympics since the Rome Games of 1960, and most have resulted in vast swaths of tickets being given away. Even though Beijing managed to sell a considerable 1.8 million tickets four years ago, that exact same amount was nonetheless also handed out in order to fill the stadiums. Athens only sold 850,000 tickets in 2004, although Sydney did sell 1.2 million back in 2000. Fans “are looking for another opportunity to come back to the venues and enjoy sport,” remarked Tim Hollingsworth, the chief executive of the British Paralympic Association, ahead of this year’s Games.

(VIDEO: The Sights and Sounds of the Olympics)

The pricing certainly appears more competitive than with the recent Olympics, which generated some controversy over its $1,150 top-price AA ticket for track and field, and $3,200 for the opening ceremony. (Plenty of $32 tickets, however, were also made available across many events.) But for just $16, an ExCeL day pass offers entry into a host of Paralympic sports such as wheelchair fencing, powerlifting, table tennis, sitting volleyball and boccia. The most expensive ticket to a Paralympic sporting event costs $71, which is less than the cheapest ticket for the men’s 100-m final during the Olympics, and many are in the $16 to $24 price range.

The opening and closing ceremonies during the Paralympics aren’t exactly being sold for a pittance — top-price tickets will run you $790 for the former and $550 for the latter — but you’re still in for a set of shows that should rival the Olympics and sees the Queen return to open the Games (though it was confirmed on Friday by Buckingham Palace that Prince Philip won’t be attending because of his recent health issues). The opening ceremony is called Enlightenment and was conceived by artistic directors Jenny Sealey and Bradley Hemmings, who hope to shine a light on artists with disabilities. “We want our ceremony to be both spectacular and deeply human at the same time,” Sealey and Hemmings wrote in an e-mail to TIME. “Having worked together in outdoor theater over a number of years, we’re determined that the ceremony should speak from the heart, tell a story, demonstrate our world-leading deaf and disabled artists and rise to the emotional and historic occasion of the homecoming of the Paralympic Games.” And thousands of volunteers have given up their time for a curtain-raiser Coe called “a great showcase of the skills and excellence of disabled artists.”

(VIDEO: Sebastian Coe, Olympic Builder)

There’s a certain symmetry for the closing ceremony, which is called Festival of Flame. As with the Olympics, Kim Gavin, David Arnold and celebrated film director Stephen Daldry are reprising their roles as artistic director, music director and executive producer. Coldplay will headline the finale and front man Chris Martin fully understands the magnitude of the event, labeling it “one of the biggest nights of our lives.”

MORE: Britain’s Party: The London Games Rock On at the Closing Ceremony

The first Indian shuttler to win a medal in the Olympics, Saina says her success should be an inspiration in a country not known as being the ideal place for girls to grow up. “In India I feel the girls are a little shy. They don’t come out and play a lot of sports,” Nehwal told TIME in an interview this week. “But I hope that my success will change that and more and more girls will come forward to play. I can already see the change in my academy [where I trained]. A lot more girls are coming in and they all want to play like me.”

(VIDEO: The Sights and Sounds of the Olympics)

Nehwal, along with a whole host of women athletes including the London bronze medal winner boxer Mary Kom, represents a breed of new, aggressive and ambitious athletes who are forcing many in India’s traditionally stodgy middle class to think differently about women and sports. Behind Nehwal’s success lies the hard work of her parents who took out loans and borrowed money from friends just so Nehwal could fulfill her dreams. Their effort is part of a growing breed of middle-class parents in India who are breaking free from the notion of a traditional future for their daughters and going to lengths to help them pursue their goals. In a country where as many as 50 million girls and women are “missing” — the result of female feticide and high mortality of girl children — and where even now 300 women die every day due to childbirth and pregnancy related causes, role models like Nehwal have the potential bring about a long-lasting change.

“Young girls are coming from the back of beyond to academies in Hyderabad with the square goal of becoming another Saina Nehwal,” says T. S. Sudhir, Saina’s biographer. “Most parents who come to the academies have dreams in their eyes – they want their daughters to become Saina Nehwal. Role models are necessary to change people’s thinking.”

The success of Nehwal and her peers is intrinsically linked with India’s liberalization in the 90s, when sports other than cricket started gaining prominence and the rise of a newly robust media ensured the successes were well documented and publicized for all to see. Liberalization also exposed the Indian middle classes to the world and spurred their kids’ ambitions. But even so, progress was slow. Even in 1997, when Razia Shabnam, now a 31-year-old boxing coach and international referee, first took up boxing, her decision scandalized her neighbors. Parents forbid their girls to talk to her and Shabnam had to hide behind a veil to walk to the boxing club where she would change into boxing gear. Slowly, as other women like boxer Mary Kom also began to win, things began to change for the athletes. Shabnam opted to coach rather than play competitively. She is also one of India’s three women international boxing referees. “Today,” Shabnam says, “parents come enquiring about opportunities.”

(MORE: Olympic Women’s Boxing Has Its First Champions, and a Generation of Girls Have New Role Models)

Many credit that shift directly to Sania Mirza, an Indian tennis star never far from the frontpages. In 2005, Mirza was the first Indian woman to win a Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) title, the AP Tourism Hyderabad Open. She followed it up with two mixed doubles grand slam wins in the 2009 Australian Open and the 2012 French Open. “Sania was young, attractive, playing hard, winning matches against big players and reached the Top 30 in the world,” say Shamya Dasgupta, a sports journalist and author of Bhiwani Junction, a book on Indian boxing. “To a nation shorn of sporting heroes, she was the real deal, for a while.”

Mirza’s athletic success, despite being sporadic, led her to become a brand ambassador of Indian women’s empowerment. Observers say her success not only brought the spotlight on other women athletes, but prompted the Indian middle classes to dream of a different future for their girls. By the 2010 Commonwealth Games, Indian women athletes won 37 medals, up from zero just ten years before. The number of Indian female athletes who competed at the 1992 Barcelona Olympics (six) nearly quadrupled to 23 in 2012. It might seem like a small leap in 20 years, but in terms of a social shift, it’s a significant step forward. “Sports is a great weapon for empowerment,” Sudhir says. “And at the moment it is happening silently. The effects will be more in your face, more visible a decade from now on.”

(MORE: Million Rupee Baby: India’s Mary Kom Could Be the Olympics’ Most Unlikely Champion)

And this silent social shift is becoming visible in the least likely places. Haryana, a northern Indian state is home to the nation’s worst male-to-female ratio and infamous for its legacy of female feticide and honor killings. But it now produces many of the nation’s most well-known female athletes. These include Krishna Poonia, a champion discus thrower and gold medalist at the 2010 Commonwealth Games and Geeta Phogat, the first Indian woman wrestler at the Olympics. Haryana’s state government has introduced various incentive schemes and promises of employment to medal-winning athletes. It also recently made it compulsory for school children to play at least one sport. These measures, analysts say, have affected the state of women in Haryana as a whole. Last year, Haryana reported a rise in the sex ratio to 877 females per 1000 males – its best in the last 110 years. “Haryana’s attitude to women is changing and that is reflected in the rise of its women athletes,” says Ritu Jagnal, a Haryana-based social activist. “It will still take time — social shifts cannot happen overnight – but it is happening.”

VIDEO: The Orbit Towers Over the London Olympics

Last Sunday, with the flame not quite extinguished on the 30th modern Olympics, roughly 100 miles up the road a soccer match was taking place. And this was no insignificant game, but rather the curtain raiser to the new domestic season in England. The Community Shield is played between the winners of the English Premier League (Manchester City) and the FA Cup (Chelsea) and, in what was supposedly a thrilling five-goal affair, City came out on top 3-2 with the best goal of the lot scored by their temperamental Argentine Carlos Tevez. Last season Tevez interrupted his own season by reportedly refusing to play in a Champions League game at Bayern Munich (which resulted in the club suspending and placing him on gardening leave) but nevertheless returned in time to help City seal their first title since 1968. Tevez’s churlish attitude, to say nothing of the actions of some of his peers, is one of the reasons why soccer fans aren’t exactly excited about the new season, which kicks off this weekend.

The other reason? The culmination of the London Games, which saw the British team net a quite staggering 65 medals – the country’s best tally in over a century — of which 29 were gold. As Great Britain rejoiced to the daily stories of sporting success, and celebrated the vast army of selfless volunteers, packed arenas and a sense of pride not seen very often, if ever, across the land, a reality dawned: the Olympic heroes weren’t just humble and gracious — they were so much nicer than the young men who chase a soccer ball around the field for a couple of hours every week and make, during that week, more than most British people make in a year — including a good number of the hitherto unknown British medalists.

(VIDEO: The Sights and Sounds of the Olympics)

Consider: Instead of watching with barely concealed contempt the likes of Chelsea captain John Terry, British sports fans could cheer for the runner, Mo Farah. Terry has spent most of the past year under the cloud of a racism charge, for which he was found not guilty in a criminal trial in July. He still faces a disciplinary charge by the English soccer governing body, the Football Association; he denies the charge. Farah, who won both the 5,000 and 10,000 meters, is a Somali immigrant, with an intense work ethic and commitment to alleviating famine in Africa. For these glorious days, the back pages of the newspapers were no longer clogged up with the likes of soccer midfielder Joey Barton (who has had a chequered career, to say the least), who lashed out violently at his fellow professionals on the final day of last season. Instead, we could read about down-to-earth heptathlon winner Jessica Ennis, the darling of the Games. And wasn’t it refreshing to not learn about the sordid details surrounding Liverpool’s Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez’s treatment of Manchester United defender Patrice Evra (and Suarez’s subsequent refusal to shake hands after being found guilty of racially abusing the Frenchman during a league match last season) but rather the back story of the rower Heather Stanning, who is a captain in the British Army but put her career on hold to train full time and is set to return to the military and could be deployed to Afghanistan in 2013?

But like it or not, the soccer season has returned. As well as the Community Shield, a whole host of international matches were played midweek (England looked surprisingly sprightly by beating Italy 2-1) and the EPL is back this weekend. What are the odds that come Manchester United’s fixture against Everton next Monday, which is the final game of the first week’s action, all mentions of Britain’s Olympics team are gone for good, as we settle into nine solid months of soccer?

(MORE: Great Britain’s First Two Golds: The Host Nation Comes to the Party)

Even soccer fans at the Olympic Park didn’t sound too keen for soccer to return. Ben Parker, a 26-year-old Manchester United fan, noted the difference between Olympic athletes “working hard for four years compared to wealthy footballers playing week in week out.” Maarten Jonckers, 49, originally from Holland and an Arsenal fan said, “I’m less interested in the build-up this year, absolutely. Nobody can talk about anything else than the Olympics, it’s fantastic.” And Martin Gallagher, a 49-year-old West Ham fan, pointed out that “people care about football but don’t care about footballers.”

Perhaps the powers that be in the national sport are finally paying attention. David Bernstein, the Football Association chairman, wants soccer players to learn from Olympians. “After the sporting spirit we have seen at the Olympic Games, players must recognise that with the privilege of playing comes the responsibility for managing themselves and their behaviours in a similar way,” he said. The FA met with the Professional Footballers Association, the trade union for professional soccer players, during the Games because the sport’s governing body wants to see an improvement in the standards of player conduct on and off the field. Perhaps the timing of the meeting was a coincidence but the stark contrast between the foul language employed by soccer players (to say nothing of the diving that goes on) and high levels of sportsmanship during the Olympics was all too evident. England’s coach, Roy Hodgson, has also had a “wake-up call” in light of the Olympic success story. “Our athletes did perform so well, not only in terms of their athletic performance but in terms of their behaviour,” he said in the build-up to the friendly match against Italy.

(MORE: Is This Spanish Team the Greatest Soccer Squad of All Time?)

In spite of its bad reputation soccer can play a positive role in British society. As wonderful as these Olympics were, the euphoria was arguably greater still back in 1966 when England won the World Cup (though neighboring Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would disagree). Every two years, if England (or the other nations) makes the finals of the World Cup or European Championships, life comes to a standstill as fans desperately will them to win. The EPL is one of the country’s most popular exports, with live games packing out bars around the world, no matter the time zone. And many a black soccer player – Sol Campbell, David James and Theo Walcott are but three recent examples which spring to mind — have been excellent role models to kids of all races in the U.K., who don’t have too many black heroes to look up to.

And one such person who loves his soccer is Mo Farah, a lifelong Arsenal fan. The club have invited him to their season opener this Saturday against Sunderland (Farah’s wife is due to give birth to twins so it’s unclear whether he’ll attend). He’s said that “I used to dream of playing for Arsenal but crossing the finish line on Saturday was better than if I had scored for them in the Champions League final.” Farah might not be the only one having second thoughts.

MORE: ‘We Got Willy Wonka’s Ticket’: Inside Britain’s Big Night at the Track

The original version of this piece stated that rower Heather Stanning left the army to train full time.

Rowers Heather Stanning and Helen Glover started GB’s good fortune by turning the women’s pair into a procession, steamrolling the competition with a winning time of seven minutes 27.13 seconds, becoming Britain’s first ever female rowers to win an Olympic title. And a few hours later, obviously still fresh from his stunning Tour de France triumph, Bradley Wiggins won gold in the time trial. The momentum was evident throughout the day, with Scotland’s Michael Jamieson getting silver in the 200m breaststroke as well as a bronze coming from the men’s eight in rowing. The (relative) plethora of medals is, in the words of Prime Minister David Cameron, “going to give a huge confidence boost to the whole country.”

(MORE: After Tour de France, Will Bradley Wiggins Win Olympic Gold?)

Hopes were high for a positive result in the rowing as Stanning and Glover are the current World silver medalists. But it’s worth remembering that Glover had never stepped in a rowing boat before 2008, which in sporting terms might as well be the equivalent of last week – she was a product of the National Lottery-funded Sporting Giants talent identification program – while Stanning’s day job is as a Captain in the Royal Artillery, which she returns to next month. Their rivals never stood a chance: despite the Germans gamely trying to keep up, Stanning and Glover were clear at 500m mark, and three-and-a-half seconds (which equated to a three-quarters of a length lead) at the halfway mark. At 1500m, with the gap further increased, the pair seemed to allow themselves a wry smile; that probably didn’t please their coaches but delighted the hometown masses watching around the country and in person at Eton Dorney, just outside of London, which included Princes William and Harry, who are fast becoming lucky mascots (they saw their cousin Zara Phillips win a silver in equestrian’s team eventing). The finish was a procession, with the only remaining issue being which of those highly competitive near neighbors would take silver and bronze (Australia held off New Zealand). Glover was so overcome with emotion that she said “I don’t remember smiling as I never ever thought we’ve got it.” As for Stanning, she wanted “to collapse I’m so overjoyed.”

(VIDEO: The Orbit Towers Over the London Olympics)

Let’s hope they recovered their composure to watch what unfolded during London’s afternoon, with the capital now bathed in golden sunshine. Tour de France winner Wiggins ripped up the record books to become GB’s most decorated Olympian, with his gold in the time trial putting his personal tally of seven – four golds, a silver and two bronzes – one ahead of Sir Steve Redgrave (aptly, the former rower Redgrave cheered Stanning and Glover on in person). After Mark Cavendish failed to deliver any kind of medal on day one of the Games in the road race, the suggestion was that the gruelling three week odyssey across France had simply taken too much out of him and his Team Sky teammates. But Wiggins got his own helping hand of sorts during last Saturday’s race, with Swiss heavyweight Fabian Cancellara, the defending champion, far from his imposing self due to the crash he suffered over the weekend. While Germany’s Tony Martin, much like his rowing compatriots, did his best to make the early running, Wiggins would not be denied and defeated Martin by a margin of 42 seconds, posting a time of 50 minutes 39 seconds. “It was phenomenal, the noise was amazing,” said Wiggins. “I don’t think my sporting career will ever top this now. That’s it. It will never, never get better than that.” But let’s spare a thought for British cycling’s forgotten man of Chris Froome, who followed up his runners-up finish to Wiggo in the Tour with an impressive bronze. In any other year, banners would be written in Froome’s name. But this is not any other year.

The host nation got a brief respite from the gold rush for a quick bite to eat and reflect upon this surge up the standings to 10th. Could the post-dinner viewing possibly include further golds? Scotland’s Jamieson flew through the 200m breaststroke heats but couldn’t respond to Daniel Gyurta when it mattered, with the Hungarian besting him in a world record time of 2:07.28. “I was desperate to get on the podium,” Jamieson said. “I know how strong Gyurta is, his last 50m is the strongest in the world no doubt, the idea was to make a move before then, and try to cling on. I’m so delighted.”

MORE: As a Teenage Chinese Swimmer Strikes Double Gold, Doping Allegations Swirl

You wouldn’t have blamed the youngster for putting his career on hold to deal with the tumultuous events. Instead, to cite that quintessentially British phrase, he kept calm and carried on, which is why he and partner Pete Waterfield hoped to win Great Britain‘s first ever gold medal in diving on Monday, July 30, in the men’s synchronized 10-m-platform final. Alas, it was not to happen, with their fourth-place finish surely the most agonizing place to be, as they had to gaze up admiringly at the dominant Chinese twosome of Yanguan Zhang and Yuan Cao, followed by divers from Mexico and the United States.

(MORE: Taking a Dive: Is Great British Hope Tom Daley Set for an Unsuccessful Olympic Games?)

It’s been a long and strange journey for Daley, whose initial performances in the aftermath of his dad’s death were not exactly encouraging. His results at the 2011 world championships in Shanghai were well below expectations: fifth place in the individual platform event and sixth with Waterfield in the synchronized. Worse with Waterfield was to come, as the pair sank to even lower depths at the World Cup in February this year (seventh out of eight), which happened to double as the Olympic test event.

And as the world knows all too well, when it rains in England, it pours. Daley’s Russian performance director, Alexei Evangulov, called him out in public for doing too many media and sponsorship spots rather than training to the same degree as his Chinese rivals. Perhaps Evangulov knew how to tweak Daley’s buttons, because there has been a resurgence in the immediate buildup to the London Games. Daley and Waterfield entered Monday’s competition as the overall synchronized champions in the 2012 Diving World Series, and Daley has the extra distinction of being the individual World Series champion and the gold medalist at the European Championships in May.

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At the heart of whether Daley would be truly competitive at his home Olympics was the following issue: could he nail four new dives that had the requisite degrees of difficulty to make him a medal winner? The toughest dive was surely the front 4½ somersaults tucked, which the Chinese can make look like child’s play at times. As for China’s divers, they started as favorites, in no small part because Yanguan Zhang and Yuan Cao had their way with Daley and Waterfield during the Beijing leg of the World Series in April, winning by more than 40 points.

And yet there were reasons to be cheerful for the Brits: the Daley-Waterfield partnership has improved by leaps and bounds because of intense training. And unlike their opponents, Daley and Waterfield have been to the rodeo before: Daley competed in Beijing, while London marks Waterfield’s fourth Olympics, with silver on his résumé after he took second in the synchro with former partner Leon Taylor in Athens in 2004. Could he and Daley possibly go one better in front of their home fans?

An almost packed aquatics center is shown a montage of stirring British Olympic images to set the mood, and the home crowd certainly responds. When Daley and Waterfield eventually emerge, the diving venue, it’s safe to say, has never sounded so loud. The pair look confident but not overly so. They are the penultimate pair to take to the diving board in each of the six rounds, competing against Russia, China, Germany, the U.S., Mexico, Cuba and Ukraine. The judges score on execution and synchronization but also pay close attention to the degree of difficulty of each dive. If only they awarded points for the Daley-Wakefield predive routine of drying their faces and heads with a towel: they perform it as if appearing in a musical in which perfect 10s are all but assured.

And assured is how the Brits begin. The 56.4 they score for an inward dive ties them with the Chinese. The same score for Round 2′s reverse dive with pike (the last of the compulsory dives) puts them 0.6 ahead of the Chinese. By the halfway mark, they deftly negotiate a reverse 3 1/2 somersault with a 3.3 degree of difficulty as an onlooking David Cameron claps his hearty approval. “Absolutely bloody sensational!” is the verdict of the (ever so slightly) biased journalist next to me. But with another 91.08 points in the bag and an ever increasing lead over China, who can blame him and the home fans for going wild?

But tougher tests lie ahead. The Chinese immediately respond, nailing their reverse 3 1/2 somersault in Round 4. Their 93.06 includes the first 10 of the day, and perhaps something snaps within the Brits. Daley’s and Waterfield’s notorious reverse 4 1/2 somersaults with tuck contains a disasterous entry. The pair plummet down the standings. In the unforgiving world of diving, one false step can kill your hopes for good, and China isn’t going to just open the door. Worse is to come, as the Brits fail to make up ground on Mexico (Ivan Garcia Navarro and German Sanchez Sanchez) and the U.S. (David Boudia and Nick McCrory), which hold on for the silver and bronze, respectively.

Daley does his best to put a positive spin on the proceedings, noting, “It started really well, and we got personal bests on the first two dives, and the third dive was really good, but the fourth was not good enough. You miss one dive and you are gone.” Waterfield also tried to appear upbeat. “It was not our day. It was not meant to be, but the crowd were amazing. It would have been lovely to stand on the rostrum in front of them.” It may not mean much to them, but London Mayor Boris Johnson, who was watching poolside, tells TIME, “I thought they did brilliantly, like twin depth charges. Couldn’t understand why they didn’t win.”

But as the wait for a gold continues for the host nation, that lack of understanding may run out if Team GB fails to deliver. (“This is fast becoming the Games that got away,” says one disgruntled photographer.) And for Daley in particular, bearing in mind that Waterfield already has his Olympic medal, there is no moment of zen. He has one more chance — in the solo 10-m-platform competition on Aug. 10.

(MORE: Cycling Road Race: No Gold for the Host Nation)